Friday, December 09, 2005

Scientific Insight from the Lovely Jennifer

There was a great John Wright article published by the Standard-Examiner a couple of days ago regarding the lingering "gondola" issue. For unknown reasons, the "Lift Ogden" folks spent thousands of dollars in the early days of the Ogden Municipal elections... Apparently trying to confuse the election issues... And trying to bring the "excitement" of their "pet" issue to the fore.

They even spent $10,000 sending out this total POS promotional brochure.

It seems that a WSU Econ class has released some significant research this week, using the best mathematical quantitative analysis techniques available.

They've "scientifically" quantified the impressions of Ogdenites re a publicly-supported gondola... even after the "full-tilt "Lift Ogden Gondola autumn PR Blitz.

John Wright reports their findings, and they seem pretty clear. Ogdenites are "unexited" about a publicly-funded gondola, and are unwilling to spend significant public moneys on such a project.

Despite the two straight months of Lift Ogden hype and hoopla, Ogdenites think it's a crock of "you know what."

The uber-tiny personal validation-needy Napoleon-sized farmboy from Harrisville on nine however sez the results of this poll are not "scientific."

In that connection, here's the text of an email I received re this from "the lovely Jennifer," a regular WCF gentle reader, and a math and econ major @ our home-town WSU:

Okay, you have Mr. God-free saying he thinks the survey was premature. He is quoted as saying "You're asking people to give you feedback when they don't have enough information," Godfrey said, "I think they're well-intentioned, but it's certainly not going to be a scientific poll."

First, what about the pamphlet circulated a while ago,and numerous articles and such in the Standard about the project? Heck, even my son in high school knows about the Gondola project - Going up to Weber State, then to Snow Basin (his words).

Second, saying the survey project was certainly unscientific could not be further from the truth. I have had the same course, taught by the same professor (and chair of the Economics Dept at WSU), and the WHOLE COURSE is all about learning how to scientifically, statistically, analytically evaluate economic choices and outcomes. Econometrics is the name of the course, and it is defined as "Application of mathematical and statistical techniques to economics in the study of problems, the analysis of data, and the development and testing of theories and models." (dictionary.com) What could be more scientific than that? And in case anybody is wondering - Economics is the study of the choices people make. So, conducting a survey among people about a choice that is in front of them is indeed scientifically justified in an economic sense.

How's that?

The Lovely Jennifer.
"Nuff said," I think.

A state-of-art Weber State University economics department class-assignment poll confirms what I already learned anecdotally, while walking precincts in Oct-Nov:

Ogden people are NOT excited by the heavily-touted "Gondola Vision."

Perhaps Ex-Utah legislator Allen and his dimwit neoCON son-in-law might want to take their whole friggin' publicly-supported "Gondola Vision" back to the drawing board.

"Unscientific" my ass.

Comments, please.

This board is all about reader comments.

And my hearty thanks to the Lovely Jennifer for her comments.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Aint nuthin scientific that don't come from little Napolian and his numb skull brigade. Them being the geniuses that cost the tax payers of Ogden over a million dollars a year in salaries, perks, cars, secretaries and free lunches.

Anonymous said...

Everytime I read something in the news that the little guy from above says, it amazes me. I read the story and I will have to agree with Rudi on this one. Not enough information..PLEASE... we never get enough information from the midget on the 9th floor. I used to have a lot of respect for his father in law, but as you guessed it went out the window also.

Everything about the regime in office at the present is chaotic, and uninformative, grand visions, flowers, and money flowing down the gutters of Washington Blvd. a rainbow on every corner.. Please, enough is enough.

Cant wait to get the midget out of office..

Anonymous said...

I was amused by the Mayor's insistence that folks didn't have enough information to make an informed judgement on the matter. Really, I thought? Well, then, we'd have to ask about the Mayor's enthusiastic endorsement of the gondola/gondola project, wouldn't we? We'd have to ask, if there just is not enough information out there, on what he bases his full support for it? Why he is [by his own admission] approaching firms and trying to lure them to Ogden by guaranteeing that the gondola/gondola system will be built? How can he promise that when the city Council has not spoken on the matter, when there is not enough information out there on which people can make an informed judgement? When Mr. Peterson's long promised, and now long overdue, disclosure of his plans has not occurred?

Why then has the Mayor turned the city's [allegedly] public TV station over to endless re-runs of Lift Ogden propaganda for the scheme about which we know so little? The Geiger "Interview" [politely so called] has been on TV more often than reruns of The Shawshank Redemption.

Only one answer that I can see: the Mayor knows a great deal more than he or the Lift Ogden crew are permitting the public to know; and the Mayor then is part of a scheme to withhold information from the public while he pumps up support for the scheme [or tries to]. After all, we do have Mr. Bob Geiger going on record with the Standard Examiner saying that Lift Ogden is witholding details of the scheme because revealing them will increase public opposition.

So, which is it? The Mayor supports the gondola/gondola scheme even though he has insuffient information about it to make a reasoned judgement --- or he has that information and is deliberately keeping the Council, the City and its residents ignorant of it so they will not be able to make an informed judgement.

What's his defence going to be? Ignorance or duplicity?

So many questions. So few answers.

Anonymous said...

To Curmudgeon I can say you definately got the disingenuous little bugger's number!

Anonymous said...

in all fairness, godfrey has never said he plans to increase taxes to pay for this thing. he'd probably welcome the $420k from the public. besides, just because the people don't want something doesn't mean it shouldn't be rammed down their throats. but i have to stick to my guns on this one, it must go to snowbasin and be as fast as possible. in other words, eliminate all stops between downtown and the women's downhill. screw weber state. they don't have any parking and it takes 5 minutes to get downtown from there. you've got to either get earl holding to sign on or wait until he dies and gives the resort to chris peterson's wife. some half-assed ski resort in malan's basin isn't going to attract anyone, period.

Anonymous said...

Dear Anonymous:

What you propose [tram from downtown or the base of Taylor or Waterfall canyons to Snow BAsin] was the original plan, examined and found wanting on economic grounds by a feasibility study Ogden had done some years ago under a previous mayor.

As for the current Mayor's position on public funding: true, he has at times said public funding would not be needed for the WSU to Malan's Basin leg of the gondola/gondola scheme. But his position on public monies going into that leg of the gondola/gondola scheme changes with his assessment of the chances of actually obtaining public funding. I believe he is, for example, meeting with UTA to see if a slice of recently approved federal funding for public transport might be shifted to the gondola scheme. According to Lift Ogden, the city had talked with UTA earlier about a one time multi-million dollar UTA construction grant to the gondola [which money would, it seems, come out of existing UTA funds for bus services in Northern Utah --- a detail, I believe, our Mayor managed not to mention to other Weber County Mayors when he asked their support for the gondola "concept."] His attempts to have the downtown to WSU leg designated a "mass transit" project had as their primary aim qualifying it for public funding.

The Mayor's latest version [stay tuned, I'm betting there will be more] seems to be that the downtown/WSU leg is not really a "mass transit" project, and so will be built with private money. [Please note: that revalation has not stopped him from talking with UTA about arraning some public money for it anyway.]

So, purely on the public funding front, the Mayor's position seems to change as he espys, or thinks he does, public money that might be shaken loose, somehow, for the western end of the gondola/gondola scheme.

As for taxes... well, yes, you are right. The Mayor has not said he wants taxes to pay for the western end of the gondola/gondola scheme. But any examination of the operating and maintenance expenses of such a system... which will be substantial... necessarily raises the question of where the money to pay them will come from. It will not come from fares on the gondola. The report of the Wasatch Regional Council on the operating costs of the gondola make it clear that it cannot pay its own way, or even come close. So, the question arises: where will the money to operate it come from, if it's not a UTA-supported mass transit system? Care to make a guess? I'll give you a hint: the answer is a five-letter word, beginning with "t" and ending in "axes."

Yes, it is true that no public transport in Utah pays its own way. All of it is subsidized, by the taxpayers: UTA busses, TRAX, commuter rail, etc. All of it. The point here is, however, this: if the downtown\WSU gondola is built with purely private funds [as Lift Ogden has suggested and as the mayor has, at times, suggested], then its operation and maintenance will not be subsidized by UTA as the proposed trolley and/or bus rapid-transit services will.

At this point, I know of no group advocating a fast lift tram or gondola from downtown Ogden over the top to Snow Basin. Certainly neither Lift Ogden nor the Mayor are. And the latest word from Snow Basin's management that I know of is that an Ogden gondola is not part of their long range plans.

So many questions. So few answers.

Anonymous said...

It is highly recommended that the people of Ogden give serious consideration to the brilliant mass transit system proposed on 25 Oct of this year in this blog. It was known as the SLING and SLIDE Yokel mass transit system or SASYMASTS for short.

Check it out, it would truly solve all of the problems of moving folks around and it would cost just a fraction of what this proposed gondola system would.

Maybe Rudi could hook up one of those magic little blue lines that let's you go right to that post?

Anonymous said...

you don't need a study to tell you that a gondola between downtown and snowbasin would help ogden. my dog, if i had one, could tell you that.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous, you do have a dog! His name is Matt Godfrey. He's not to bright, he craps in the house, and he bites the hand that feeds him. Also he is not loyal to his masters. I think he is a Pekinese, at least he is about that size and temprement.

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