Excellent editorial in this morning's Los Angeles Times. Columnist Rosa Brooks starts out with a comparison of Hillary's failed 2008 presidential campaign to the 1992 presidential race, in which incumbent George H. W. Bush got knocked off by a political unknown, Bill Clinton:
"It's the economy, stupid," said James Carville, summing up Bill Clinton's 1992 win over George H.W. Bush. Bush started out with incumbent status and an impressive resume, but he never managed to wrap his mind around the fact of the recession. In the end, he lost to Clinton -- the candidate from nowhere.Ms. Brooks proceeds from there, not only attributing Senator Clinton's 2008 campaign loss to her basic failure to grasp a fundamental issue in the 2008 campaign, i.e., Clinton's 2002 vote for the Iraq War, but also to "resemblances between [her] campaign style and [current president George W.] Bush's Iraq strategy," which Columnist Brooks characterise as "eerie and striking."
Sixteen years later, it's Clinton's wife who's found herself in the elder Bush's position. Hillary Rodham Clinton began the Democratic primary with a famous name, thousands of Democrats who owed their careers to her husband, an enviable war chest and scores of superdelegates in her pocket before the race even began.
All the same, she lost. To a guy few had heard of four years ago. A black guy with the unpropitious name of Barack Hussein Obama, who had no money, no superdelegates and no political machine. But this week, he won, fair and square.
How did Clinton go from inevitable to irrelevant in six months? If Carville were still at the top of his game, he'd be telling Clinton: It's Iraq, stupid. In more ways than one.
A fascinating op-ed piece all-in-all, and definitely worth a read, we think, now that the Democratic Party presidential nomination process is complete, and American journalistic commentators and pundits launch the inevitable presidential nomination post mortem.
Reader comments are invited, of course.
24 comments:
Let's face it. Hillary lost the nomination because voters perceive her as a complete "bitch."
Her bullog failed campaign cements the image.
Good riddance.
If Obama selects her for the VP slot, Obama is toast.
Well, instead of trying to read the minds of nearly 18 million Democratic voters who opted for Sen. Obama and the minds of nearly 18 million Democratic voters who preferred Sen. Clinton, maybe it would be more useful to check out Paul Rolly's column in today's SL Trib, which details the ways Weber County Republican leaders are trying to snuff out dissent and trying to prevent a public debate between their incumbent candidate and his Republican challenger. And then we can all enjoy the show as Weber County Republicans sport their little flag lapel pins and tell us how much they love democracy. Rolly's column can be found here.
Wasn't really trying to "read minds," Curm As you well know, I'm fascinated by political "nuts and bolts."
While we're on the subject, though, did you read Bob Bernick's piece today in the Deseret News?
News analysis: GOP still on top in Utah
I'll betcha a burger and a beer that not more than four presently-occupied GOP seats wind up in Utah Demo hands in November... despite Obama's very BROAD coat-tails.
Utah Demos are whipping themsleves into a friggin' tizzy, considering the low-probability Utah possiblities.
I confess I feel sorry for them.
You and they will be crying the blues in November, methinks, as Utah voters go to the polls with a mind toward politics as per usual.
When that happens I'll provide a stalwart GOP shoulder to cry on, while I munch ont on the burger you bought, and wash it down with a cool one ya bought me.
Rudi:
The mind-reading comment was meant for the first comment above, not your main thread post. Sorry. Should have been more clear about that.
Now about November in the Beehive State: If it turns out, when all the shoutin's done, that God's Party [Utah Democratic Party of course] has a net gain of four legislative seats and the Anti-Constitutional Party [aka "Republicans"] a net loss of four, Mrs. Curmudgeon and I will break out a couple of state-sanctioned-and-sold bottles of Andres finest bubbly [vintage about mid October --- aged in the bottle] and maybe a six pack or two of Polygamy Porter and First Amendment Lager for a good old Democratic celebration. I will be delighted with a result like that.
As for the "tizzy" --- well, I haven't seen it. Mostly what I've run into locally, and at the state level, is an uncommon number of people volunteering and a general attitude of sober "let's get to work." Maybe a little more enthusiasm than usual, but then, normally Utah Dems have so little to be enthusiastic about, you can cut us a little slack on that.
You guys had a chance to clean up your own house, but you went and renominated Buttars and Curtis anyway. So no sympathy from me. If Utah Republicans had done their job, you wouldn't have to hope we will do it for you instead in November.
But I won't hold you too much to what you post today, since I figure you're still tingly all over and still coming down from the pulse pounding excitement of McCain's Tuesday night speech in Kenner, LA [which he apparently thought was New Orleans].
Man, somebody did some lousy advance work for him. Did you notice the tepid... and I do mean very tepid... response when he said Obama wants to raise tariffs on food imported into the US and thus raise food prices for everyone? He was in South Louisiana, where the shrimp and crawfish fishermen and farmers are getting killed, absolutely killed, by the massive importation of Asian, mostly Chinese shrimp and packaged crawfish [some of it at below cost prices]. They've been begging the feds to impose a tariff on imported shrimp and crawfish for years. Didn't anybody tell McCain? Didn't McCain's people run the speech past anybody local?
But hey, I'm happy. McCain wants to run in Louisiana advocating no tariffs on imported Asian shrimp and crawfish, I'll be delighted... as will the Lousisiana Democratic Party and as will Sen Mary Landrieu. That particular gaffe by McCain was a gift from god for her campaign. Betcha her folks are fanning out across Calcasieu and Jeff Davis and Tangapahoa parishes even as we type, running the clip for the folks as in from a day of craw fishing in the Atchafalaya basin, or the ponds, and shrimping in the Gulf.
This is a very sensitive topic in Lousiana Republican circles, since the leaders are convinced Landrieu won her last two elections when national-level Republican operatives came into the state [without being invited] to run national party developed ads --- developed by people who knew dipsquat about the Louisiana electorate or what issues resonated with them --- and the national folk royally screwed things up. McCain's gaffe has got to look to them like [in the immortal words of Yogi] "deja vu all over again."
"You guys had a chance to clean up your own house, but you went and renominated Buttars and Curtis anyway. So no sympathy from me. If Utah Republicans had done their job, you wouldn't have to hope we will do it for you instead in November."
Touche' Curm. As you know I'm a Republican with strong libertarian (lower case "l") leanings.
Nothing would be better for the Utah body politic, I think, than eliminating a few people like Chris Buttars. Unfortunately he survived a not so close convention vote. Shades of Mississippi in 1958, I think.
Inforunately, we now have to rely upon our freiends, the Demos, to do that.
Godspeed on that political project, I say.
Eliminating the fringe radicals is the best thing for BOTH PARTIES, methinks.
Speaking of coat tails, I recieved a letter from the mayors Father-in-law asking for donataions and help for his campaign. He praised Lou Shurtliff. With his son in law having a few thousand (83K I think) left over I think he might tap into that fund since he was so supportive of the mayor. Unfortunately this might be a Democratic seat lost this election.
Voter raises a salient point, Good Old (?) Curmudgeon, and I again direct you to Norse anthology to study the icy tomb of Odin, where your pulchritudinous vote for Addled Ed Allen -- let us pray that the people of Ogden will vote to continue this momentum -- will dwell for eternity, haunting your very soul. Addled Ed, who chided an opponent in 2005: "Now I'll get my GONDOLA." Gee, where is it, Mr. Wizard? Tisk, tisk, Curmudgeon. The District 10 seat will be the largest landslide loss the (my) Dems have suffered in the history of races for the Utah Legislature. And I'm glad. Addled Dr. Eddie Allen, champion of the abusive midget son-in-law with a gigantic forehead, an otherwordly love of GONDOLAs and a bizzare, subservient relationship to THE SKI IS BEAUTIFUL BLUE, who is in charge of roughly nine employees in OTown, four of whom are family. Tisk, tisk, indeed.
THE SKI IS BEAUTIFUL BLUE
The unmistakable fingerprints on the Hillary Clintion failure are from Bill Clinton, Terry McAuliffe and James Carville. What a losing trifecta that is. It all blew up in their faces because they treated the nomination and democratic voters like it was a done deal for Hillary.
One obvious point stood out with Hillary, when asked important questions, Hillary instead of saying she for or against the subject, would say "I've heard that." Who is kidding whom? That response is pure Bill Clinton. She wanted to test the opinion waters before she would commit. America is better off with her only able to damage New York state than the entire country.
Rudi:
Once back in the days I too was a Republican. I can now say that I was one for all the incorrect reasons. Since then I cannot figure out why somebody would identify themselves as a Republican.
If you would be so willing would you be willing to share with me a few reasons why one is/should be republican.
By your posts you seem like a well informed and educated man. I guess I no longer understand the Republican party and am looking for knowledge/understanding.
If this is too personal then please forgive the request.
Cheers,
Jason:
You wrote: The District 10 seat will be the largest landslide loss the (my) Dems have suffered in the history of races for the Utah Legislature.
Of course, I remember equally confident predictions that Mayor Godfrey was going down to ignominious defeat last year. Didn't happen.
I remind you again, that Mr. Allen has a solid Democratic voting record in the Senate until he was gerrymandered out of his seat. And he's not running for city council. If he was, I'd work against his election.
I will grant you that the Mayor's duplicitous action in getting through a bill by sneakery locking him in as RDA head raises, at least in my mind, a problem. So the thing to do, is ask Mr. Allen where he stands on the matter of inserting matters into bills at the last minute without committee action or discussion, and whether he will introduce a bill to repeal making Mayors automatically RDA heads in cities.
You are making a great many assumptions about how Mr. Allen would vote in legislative matters based solely on your unhappiness with the fact that he's pro-gondola.
Not to mention that I'm hard put to see how putting another Republican in the house will make it in any way more difficult for our Republican Mayor to have his co-conspirators, like Messrs Bramble and Curtis slip Godfrey bills in at will.
Rudi:
I'm a political junkie too.
I've posted before about The Votemaster at www.electoral-vote.com, my favorite site. I love his perspective. In fact, his Jun 5 post (there's a new one every morning) almost made me feel sorry for Hillary, which is no mean feat.
There's a comprehensive analysis of Senate and House races there too, and a continuously updated Electoral College map based on averages of recent non-partisan polls.
You might also like to see this article by Justin Sizemore at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball site. It's called "How Obama Did It" but it might as well be called "How Hillary Blew It". (Short, Carville-ized version: it's the caucuses, stupid.) I really like Sabato too, and he has links to the Cook Political Report and Goddard's Political Wire.
Together, those are my favorite political sites. You'll be amazed how accurate and insightful www.electoral-vote.com is. I've been following it since 2004 and he's been pretty close.
Mono:
Thanks for the pointers. Am passing the links on.
Rudi,
I gotta call ya on that "Republican with libertarian lean" bullshit.
As Curm says "the anti-constitutional party" best describes Republicans.
These cretins have been responsible for the rise in American imperialism, the War on Drugs, the War on Gays, the War on Terror which is in effect a War on US.
What in hell would make any clear thinking individual claim alliance with them. I don't care for the libertarian leaning. That is code for thinking you are progressive enough to be against most of what Republicans stand for yet ya'll keep on electing these shitheads.
I'm no Dem, but I can see the lesser of evils. In fact, no Dem ever had the evil quotient rating anywhere near the Repugnantcans.
I call out most of these Republicans for voting that way because of their manhood is threatened. Big trucks and bigger egos along with a deflated genitalia mark these constitutional posers.
Read my lips, Bird & Tec:
"Bush Tax Cuts"
Gots to admits I loves 'em.
You guys are taxpayers, right?
Rudi,
cool man, I can tell you are a big hi-roller who can really benefit from the Bush tax cuts. Rather it makes you feel like a hi-roller claiming that you benefit from tax cuts.
So I can see that in the selfish mind of the "libertarican" your tax cuts are so much more important than getting the friggin' government monkey off our backs. Would you rather claim to be saving a bunch on taxes(I bet you aren't) or get the US out of the War on Drugs business. Maybe as a bonus we can get the US out of Iraq and the rest of the Middle East and Asia. Crap, how narrow minded can you get Rudi? Tax cuts is all you can come up with. "give me tax cuts while destroying our standing in the world and while killing a hundred thousand innocent Iraqis and Afghans. I pity the isolated.
I'd rather pay taxes to a government that can get us a modern nationwide transit system, a Manhattan Project-like commitment to diversified energy. How about a healthcare system for ALL.
And all you can say is "Bush Tax Cuts". show me your 1040's and prove it.
I'm calling you out Rudi, claiming Republican with Lib leanings is very passe and only serves to give you the out that you really don't support much of the Republican platform. Some weak posing at that. Your posture is sagging.
This is just the beginning, Rudi,
I will hold you and any more "cool observer" types who maintain the contrarian, pseudo-hip, anti-conscientious, reduced government empty talk. That stance is the most dangerous as your heroes continually run roughshod over the founding principles of our great country. Republicans suck...just a little more than Democrats.
Well, Good Old (?) Curmudgeon, I will cop to being one of those who predicted a Lying Little Matty Gondola Godfrey loss; I underestimated, by 500, the number of brain-dead dolts, mindless sheep and forgetfull, immoral ninnies who would support the five-foot-five forehead with a GONDOLA fetish. "But look what he's done!" was a common refrain. Yeah, look at it. Whatever. But you're playing party politics with Addled Dr. Eddie, when you should be looking at the candidate and his character. You support his using the church pulpit to speak politically about his wiener son-in-law and co-GONDOLA conspirator? You support his bullying of businesses who had the anti-Jackass Center petition? You read the tear-jerking and illiterate screed he fired off to the Gondola-Examiner about his "precious" Little Matty? All politics is local and his behavior locally since he was booted out of the Senate by the voters -- a principle that you laud, longly and loudly on this board, day in and day out -- has been nothing short of embarrasing. Therefore, casting a vote for the old self-important GONDOLA freak and delusional soldier in Wayne Peterson's famed Squirrel Patrol is foolhardy and reflects poorly on you, even though you will couch it on its surface as a gesture of electoral and political principle. And it's certainly your right, but don't bring up the specter of gerrymandering when you're always lecturing us about Lying Little Matty Gondola Godfrey as being elected by the people as mayor of GONDOLA TOWN, Utah, the "mecca of high-adventure recreation." Further, I will also trust that your bagels are not onion-flavored.
THE SKI IS BEAUTIFUL BLUE
Jason:
You wrote: you will couch it on its surface as a gesture of electoral and political principle.
No, Jason. I couch it as a matter of electoral and political pragmatism. Nothing of what you posted above dealt with what, for me, is the main question I have to ask, and answer, when deciding who to support in this house race: will the residents of that House district, will Ogden, be better served by having Lou's seat filled by a Republican next term than by Mr. Allen? The answer to that question seems to me to be a clear "no." As long as that's so, Allen gets my vote. And support.
Would he have been my choice of a candidate? Not particularly. Would I support him if he was running for City Council? Absolutely not, and I'd work against his election. But he's running for the House, not the Council. And on most matters that come before the House, he has a good Democratic voting record that I would not like to see replaced by yet another Republican lock-step Bramble/Curtis/Buttars spear-carrier. That's the deciding question for me.
And you wrote: don't bring up the specter of gerrymandering when you're always lecturing us about Lying Little Matty Gondola Godfrey as being elected by the people as mayor.
Why not? Godfrey wasn't gerrymandered into his office. Allen was gerrymandered out of his Senate seat. Pretending that's not so because you don't like Allen's stand on the gondola or his support for Godfrey doesn't change the facts.
Filling Lou's seat with a Republican because you're mad at Allen's stand on Godfrey and the gondola seems to me like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Doing that would not make it one iota less likely that Republican Godfrey could get his pet legislation inserted in the dead of night absent committee vetting by his co-conspirators like Republican Bramble. Increasing the majority Bramble has to work with would make matters worse, not better.
Would Allen have sat still for Brambles unethical conduct on this and other matters [i.e. the omnibus education bill]? Certainly a fair question for any candidate for the Utah House. Why don't you ask Mr. Allen. Where does he stand dark of night behind closed doors insertions in bills? Would he introduce a bill to repeal the Mayors-Are-RDA-Execs clause?
He's a candidate. Ask him. And his opponent too. Would the Republican candidate work to repeal that?
But no, Allen's favoring the gondola and supporting Godfrey in city affairs is not a reason to put a Republican in in his place. It is a reason to work, hard, against Mr. Allen winning election to a City Council seat or County Commissioners seat should he decide to run for one of those. But not a seat in the House.
Rudi:
So, you love those Bush tax cuts, do you?
Here's the headine of a wire service story I woke up to this morning: Oil jumps over $6 as dollar weakens
The Republican President and his lock-step "we'll vote for anything the president wants because he's a Republican president" Congressional majorities have, by their combining massive tax cuts with massive increases in spending, saddled us all with $35 trillion... yes, with a "t"... of unfunded federal liabilities in the coming two decades. Thirty five trillion....
They've gone on a drunken sailor spending spree and they've put it all on the national credit card. Even without the war, Bush's assault on Federal revenues [the massive tax cuts] plus spending would have left us with many trillions in unfunded liabilities.
As our national debt metastasizes --- surprise, surprise! --- the value of the dollar drops, and the price we have to pay for the oil we import goes up. And up. And up.
I remind you that Al Gore's plan for the budget surplus the Clinton administration left the nation with was to devote 1/3 to shoring up social security, 1/3 to reducing the national debt [and so the billions a year we pay, much of it to Red China, in interest payments on that debt], and one third for new programs. Instead we wound up with the fiscal conservatism [politely so called] of the Bush administration, which consisted of (a)slashing federal revues via tax cuts and (b) putting trillions more on the national credit card.
We may already be, as a nation, bankrupt beyond saving. I don't know. It's possible. But the only hope for getting the debt monster under control [and so getting inflation and the collapsing dollar under control] is a combination of increasing federal revenues --- yes, Rudi, that means letting most of the Bush tax cuts die [as the tax cut bill Republicans passed provides for... their way of hiding the full cost of the tax cuts] --- and reining in spending.
Yes, Rudi, higher taxes are in the present circumstances, necessary. They've been made so by the fiscal lunacy of the Bush administration and its bobble-head followers in the US House and Senate who forget nearly every principle of fiscal conservatism they claimed they believed in, just because the moron in the White House was a Republican. Remember, Rudi, the infamous "bridge to nowhere" was an earmark inserted into the budget bill by a Republican senator, and approved by a Republican controlled House and Senate, and signed by a Republican President. I'm afraid I cannot take seriously now Republican whining about the alleged "danger" of electing spendthrift Democrats.
The coveted "Euphemism of the Month" award goes to... President George W. Bush, who today, after noting that the American economy lost 45,000 jobs last month, described this state of affairs as "a period of slow growth."
For his magnificent performance in the category of "creative euphemism," President Bush received the award by unanimous vote of the Awards Committee.
Good Old (?) Curmudgeon:
You, sir, are full of shit. You cannot lecture me, in one breath, about Lying Little Matty Gondola Godfrey being duly elected, then decry that douchewad Allen being the victim of gerrymandering, and being ousted by the same electorate. He lost, ahole, just like my candidate for mayor. You are the worst of hypocrites, Geiger. Vote for Addled Ed, asswiper.
THE SKI IS BEAUTIFUL BLUE
Jason:
Ah, Jason.... It's so easy to make an argument when you ignore the facts, isn't it?
Fact: Allen was a Dem Senator until the Republican legislature gerrymandered his district to increase the proportion of Republican voters in it and so remove him from office.
Fact: Chief Greiner was gerrymandered into his seat when the Republican legislature redrew his district to load it up with enough non-Ogden voters to permit him to win. [He did not win a majority of the Ogden voters in his district.]
Fact: the Mayor was not gerrymandered into his office. Ogden City's borders were not altered to include more Republican voters in order to insure Godfrey's victory.
Those really are the facts, Jason, however inconvenient you may find them for your argument. Of course, you always have the option of adopting the Godfrey approach to inconvenient facts: you can pretend they don't exist.
Well, I stand corrected, Good Old (?) Curmudgeon. But you miss the base point: However the districts were redrawn, and gerrymandered, the voters ousted good old Addled Ed. He lost. Lost. By the vote of the public. That should count for something, especially in the mind of one who is so enamored of the process. But I regret calling you a Geiger; I hope you'll forgive me.
THE SKI IS BEAUTIFUL BLUE
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