On this day, 158 years ago, Brigham Young and his band of pioneers arrived in the Salt Lake Valley, starting a migration that quickly turned Utah into a Mormon-dominated desert realm.You can read the full article here.
That domination - at least in terms of raw numbers - appears to be nearing its end.
Within the next three years, the Mormon share of Utah's population is expected to hit its lowest level since The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints started keeping membership numbers. And if current trends continue, LDS residents no longer will constitute a majority by 2030.
These projections are based on normally secret membership counts the LDS Church voluntarily hands over to Utah's Office of Planning and Budget, under what it assumed was a binding confidentiality agreement. The state planning office uses the county-by-county numbers to help estimate future population growth.
Through a public records request, The Salt Lake Tribune obtained the data from 1989 to 2004. State employees believe the LDS Church has provided the records since at least the 1960s but could retrieve only the numbers for 15 years and found no such confidentiality agreement.
Still, these 15 years are enough to identify a historic transformation in the makeup of Utah's ever-growing population.
Stated simply: "Utah is essentially becoming more like the nation," said Robert Spendlove, the planning office's lead demographer.
This raises some interesting questions, as the State of Utah aggressively recruits out-of state corporations, and considers abolition of the state corporate income tax, among other things. Although the planning office's lead demographer projects a "slow shift," such a projection fails to take into account, it seems to me, the sudden effect of corporate-related immigration, if Governor Hunstman's administration substantially succeeds in luring out-of-state companies to Utah, with a more manufacturing-friendly -- and generally business-friendly -- economic environment.
What say our gentle Weber County Forum readers? Will an influx of skilled workers and executives to Utah in the next few years accelerate the pace of Utah's already-documented demographic shift? How will this shift effect the local political climate? Is this really about mere Republican-Democrat politics, as the article suggests; or will these inevitable changes be more fundamental, and go beyond mere partisan party politics? How will these changes effect our unique local culture, and the manner in which politics are presently conducted in the State of Utah?
Comments?
18 comments:
To think that the Mormon influence may well go the way of the Edsel, in Utah, is likeened to say that the Catholics will loose their vaunted position in Boston.
It ain't gonna happen, and shouldn't.
The legendary Irish-Catholic political machine of Boston is a textbook example, I think, of how the shift in a political power-base can occur in the aftermath of a demographic shift, brought about by the importation of a new work-force.
Here's a thumbnail history of the Catholic political juggernaut, which actually dates back only to about 1884.
Is the same thing in store for Utah? Will the existing "Boston Brahmins" of Utah be forced to yield political hegemony to the "newcomers" in the same way that the Massachusetts "Yankees" did?
As went the Catholics, so will go the Mormons....I doubt any other geo-political force will circumscribe the LDS here; but the LDS may realize a "shift" if you will, just as they did when they allowed Black-Americans (African-Americans to be PC) to join the Priesthood. In this way, some change will probably come. I doubt we will see a change because of an influx of of non-mormons of a demographic shift.
I could be wrong, but Heritage is overwhelmingly strong, especially here. After all, "This is the place," and all other a really carpetbaggers....or guests.
proof reading:
because of an influx of non-mormons or demographic shift
all others are really carpetbaggers
You know, this isn't too bad. In a state like this, more diversity wouldn't hurt at all. And I think that most LDS people get along just fine with non-LDS people, and that most non-LDS people accept the fact that the LDS church is a big part of Utah's culture and heritage. Maybe I'm being a bit too idealistic, but as long as we can all just get along, and as long as there aren't too many Gayle Ruzickas around, I think everything will be just fine.
EC: "all others are really carpetbaggers"
I'm sure that's what all the originally Boston Brahmins believed...
prior to 1884.
Easy does it Rudi....were speaking in euphamisms now.
Centerville & Ethan....right on.
It is all academic! The MoMo's are the one true religion and we are destined to rule the whole world!
Besides that we will all eventually get our very own world to be god of. So you see, this stuff about the church losing percentage points in Utah is just so much provincial drivel. It doesn't matter in the big picture.
Comon Douglas, enough with the cynicysm, pal. The Mormons are not interested in ruling the world, they're interested in eternal salvation and serving the Lord. Because we find a few "individual" Mormons who can be complete, pompous, hyprocritical asses, doesn't mean we should broadbrush the entire religion's philosophy or practice.
We'd do well to remember the history, and why they came to what we now call Utah: they fled persecution, endured an unimaginable journey, and founded this State that we call home. That should be respected. After all, this "harvest" that we call home comes from their efforts.
I think both Joseph Smith and Brigham Young held a philosophy that sought total domination over its followers, and total domination over the area where the followers lived. (Much like Colorado City).
It appears to me that the modern LDS church has traded its position of seeking local domination to that of seeking global spiritual leadership.
There is even a possibility that LDS are starting to see the value of diversity. Though I am not sure on that one.
It will be interesting to see how this change manifests itself.
One of the biggest reasons for the drop in the local domination of the LDS Church has been the influx of Spanish Speaking Catholics from South America.
The growth in this Latin subculture is extremely interesting. Both the LDS and FLDS Church have strong ties with Mexico and Latin America. I believe the global LDS Church sees Latin America as a prime area for growth. Growing the local Latin community shows acceptance of the large LDS populations in South American.
At the same time, I occasionally come across hints of a growing xenophobia. I have many LDS friends who are horrified at the growing number of brown faces in Utah.
Lionel Greiger brought up "dark skinned" people and likened his racist comments to being "black" exclusive. I found that interesting.
Now Kevin brings up his LDS friends who are "horrified" about the influx of "dark faces."
Ah, the issue of race, permeating our threads, our cultures, our cities and I guess, our thoughts.
Sad scenario, isn't it?
It's enlightening that all the Mormon locals believe that "all is well" for everybody in the beehive state.
Speaking for myself as an "outsider" who moved here about ten years ago to do a private-industry job, I'll just say that I find Mormon people to be a little more than "Standoffish."
"Cultish" would be a more adequate descipton from the point of view of a cultural outsider.
You Mormans are very happy here with the little State theocracy that you invented.
Take it from me as a newcomer from California. Newcomers will bring the "Saints" back to real world, once we popualte this place with Governor Huntsman's "new industy"in Utah.
It'll happen more quickly than anyone expects.
Wake up and smell the Sanka, Utah Mormons.
You can say what you will about the Mormon Church but it is an emormous force for good in a very troubled world.
Religion aside, Gordon Hinkley is certainly one of the great men of this or any other age. His message of love, fairness, and understanding is heard round the world. Unfortunately it is ignored by a great number of the current crop of NeoCon republican politicians and some better than thow members here in Utah that give the church a bad reputation.
I doubt that the Mormon Church would condone the heartless manner in which the big guy on nine and HIS council conducts the business of Emerald City to the detrement of it's citizens. If the Church believed in the use of eminent domain seizure of private property for the benefit of a private company then it would still be the law of the land here in Zion.
If there is a problem with the LDS Church, it is not the institution but any number of self serving politicians and business people who hide behind their membership as they go about their looting and ego monument building. There has always been evil intended people who hide behind and use the church as a cover for their nefarious schemes.
Well said, Ozboy....
ozboy,
In the first iteration of the LDS Church (and Utah for that matter), there really was no private property. The early LDS church was a full blown experiment in communal living. The seer, relevator and prophet could take whatever property (or wives) that he saw fit.
The different between LDS communal societies and Communism is that the LDS Church experiments thought there needed to be an extremely powerful church based hierarchy at the center of society. Communists felt that the state should be transformed into a religion.
As for the neocon jab. By many definitions, the LDS Church belongs squarely in the category of neoconservatism. The defining characteristic of neo-conservativism is a rejection of both modern liberalism and libertarianism.
The LDS Church and Dixiecrats made their switch to the Republican Party in the 50s. As such, the LDS were pioneers in defining the neocon agenda. The LDS switched to Republican party because the Great Society put an athiestic twist to the New Deal.
The actual practices of the LDS Church and Utah Republicanism is far more in keeping with neoconservativism than with the libertarian practices of Buckley Conservatives. Utah has some of the highest tax rates, and aggressively seeks to legislate morality. This is in stark contrast to Republicans in other states. My parents were Republicans until they moved to Utah, now they just dispair.
"Unfortunately it [The LDS Church] is ignored by a great number of the current crop of NeoCon ..."
The LDS Church is one of the leading forces in defining the neoconservative agenda. The national republican party is becoming more and more like the Utah Republican Party by the minute.
According to the Neocon reader,
Neoconservatism reject the Libertarian ideals of traditional conservatives. They basically are seeking a faith based New Deal, and that is what the US is getting with the current massive increase in the Federal Deficit.
Kevin:
It is refreshing to be contradicted by someone of your obvious intelligence. I agree with most of what you say here, but in my own humble way I was trying to point out that it is not the rascals who hide behind the Church that truly represent it. If you read and listen to the words of Mr. Hinkley you will see a distinct humanitarian message, one very much opposite of the manipulations of the dominant politicians here in Zion who appear to not only ignore the citizens but the great man himself.
That last comment was supurb, Kevin. You're obviously a knowledgeable and capable student of Utah history, and contemporary American politics.
I'm sure I'll be speaking for many of us here, when I say that its good to have you contributing to this blog.
I hope you'll continue to check in regularly, and to offer your continuing comments and insights without hesitation.
Rudi, next you'll be wanting to hold hands with this guy Kevin.
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