Just to kick off this morning's thread, we'll briefly put the spotlight on two Standard-Examiner front page articles, discussing what's become Emerald City's hot campaign issue -- the Ogden City "crime problem." In a nutshell, mayoral candidate Godfrey contends "crime is down" in Ogden, whereas challenger Van Hooser says "crime is up" -- as if Weber County Forum readers didn't already know that.
Having interviewed a University of Utah communications professor about a recent round of campaign fliers that each candidate mailed out this week, Ace Reporter Schwebke's morning article regurgitates gems like this:
The conflicting messages in the two brochures could mystify some voters, said Bryson Morgan, communications director at the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics.Readers looking for something substantive to explain the conflicting positions of our two mayoral candidates will find no help in this morning's Schwebke piece, and in fact may want to skip it altogether.
Some voters may tune out the anti-crime messages in both brochures because they are puzzled by the disparity in crime statistics, he said.
However, some may accept claims in the brochures at face value, particularly if they already support Van Hooser or Godfrey, Morgan said.
“It depends on how they view the credibility of a particular candidate.”
The brochures may spur a small percentage of voters to do research to determine if Godfrey and Van Hooser are telling the truth about crime reduction, Morgan said.
For some voters, the litmus test may be a gut feeling regarding whether they feel more safe since Godfrey took office, he said.
It’s risky for a candidate to tell voters crime has gone down — even though that may be true — because of public perception that crime is on the rise everywhere, Morgan said.
Also, it’s common for incumbents to focus on their successes and for challengers to concentrate on their opponents’ failures, he said.
And sadly, the second Victoria Johnson story isn't really very much better. Although Ms. Johnson did interview a WSU statistics course professor, and did at least superficially delve into the actual crime statistics numbers, her article is predicated on what we believe to be a series of false assumptions. In this connection, we incorporate a few paragraphs from today's article:
“I don’t think they’re changing the information that’s there, but because of the sources they choose and the time period they choose, they’re trying to make it most favorable to them,” he said Friday. [Quoting WSU professor Reynolds]The assumption of today's second article is that all the available data is accurate and reliable, but that each candidate has cherry picked, putting forth the data which best supports his and her own position. Whereas Boss Godfrey has chosen Ogden City data representing the full eight years of his term of office, challenger Van Hooser has selected non Ogden City data from the years 2004-06. That's the story, at least.
Ogden’s crime statistics, like those of other municipalities, are available from three sources: the city, the state and the federal government. The ultimate product is the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report, which was created to “meet a need for reliable, uniform crime statistics for the nation,” according to the bureau’s Web site.
At each level, the criteria of how crimes are defined is different, resulting in slightly different numbers. So the statistics used by both candidates are correct according to their sources, with each candidate claiming his or her source is more reliable.
We at WCF of course already know better, inamuch as we've been the beneficiaries of some very rigorous analysis. And we already know that Ogden City's crime data for the full eight-year period is troublingly inaccurate at best. Even Chief Greiner has implicitly admitted that.
We'll move on today's next topic for now. With luck, perhaps we'll hear more in this thread from the good professor Hutchins, who seems to be the only soul in town who has carefully examined all the available data.
Finally we'll note that we searched this morning's Std-Ex edition front to back, and were unable to find anything about last night's meet the council candidates event. Although Kristen Moulten has a short report in this morning's Salt Lake Tribune, we're sure that our readers would like to hear more from those lumpencitizens who were in attendance.
Have at it gentle readers. Time to let 'er rip.
39 comments:
"Great Caesar's ghost!" as the editor of The Daily Planet used to say. What the devil is going on at The Standard Examiner? It features on the front page this morning a story by Victoria Johnson that actually assesses the accuracy of claims about Ogden's crime rate under Mayor Godfrey's "leadership" [politely so called]. It's a little late in the day, since he's been making such claims for nearly two months now, but still, nice to see the SE at last committing journalism in its political reporting.
And more amazing still, the SE's reporter sought out expert opinion, not merely the opinions of the two Mayoral candidates and their supporters. She sought out Weber State University sociology Professor Dr. Robert Reynolds, who teaches statistics courses, for his expertise evaluating the statistical claims of both Godfrey and Van Hooser.
Let us hope this [for the SE] radical approach to reporting electoral claims and pronouncements of elected officials --- checking claims of fact --- is a sign of things to come. Let's hope in the few days remaining before the election, for example, the SE consults its attorneys about whether the Mayor's recent "declaration" that he has put in place legally enforceable "restrictive covenants" that will prevent his reneging on his promise not to sell Mt. Ogden Park if he is re-elected is in fact so. Let's hope the SE reports on whether the park lands have in fact been protected "in perpetuity" as the Mayor claims. Who knows? Maybe the SE will discover that checking the claims of elected officials to see if they are true is a good way to do journalism all the time. After all, stranger things have happened. The '69 Mets won the world series. George Bush read a book once. Miracles do occur.
With regard to Mayor Godfrey's claim that crime is down, then why is he the driving force behind putting out the new police special ops squad tonight? If crime were truly down then one would think that such a specialty squad, targeting serious crimes in a specific area of town, would not be necessary. Fact is this special squad was approved of months ago and was to be implemented after the start of the new year. Godfrey is forcing Greiner to put the squad out months early (just in time for election) suddenly and unexpectedly. If he did this for the election then he is probably too late. The new squad will work exactly one shift before the election. I am guessing there will not be a significant decrease in crime in that amount of time. Putting them on the streets early, then, must mean only one thing. PR. Look for some flowery feel good story in the SE about this squad before election.
Not that this squad will do much for the taxpayers pocketbooks. It was so hastily put together that officers were pulled from existing squads to form this new squad. Now there is a huge sign up list for available OVERTIME shifts to fill in vacancies in existing shifts. Does not make sense to me. Greiner probably foresaw this which is why he was shooting for first of the year starting. From what I understand this is entirely a Godfrey push (order).
Rudi:
You were a little hard on Mr. Schwebke, I think. His topic was not the accuracy [or lack thereof] of the crime statistics claimed by Godfrey and Van Hooser. It was how the public deals with flatly conflicting claims by candidates during elections --- a very different matter. And he went to Bryson Morgan, communications director at the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics for some expertise on voter behavior in such situations. Seems to me a good thing for him to have done and a not unreasonable story for the SE to have assigned a reporter to do. It sent Ms. Johnson after statistical expertise to examine the conflicting claims [way late and playing catch-up with WCF, I agree, but good none the less], and it sent Mr. Schwebke after electoral expertise about how voters tend to deal with conflicting statistical claims. Both seem like good ideas to me.
I thought the articles in the SE were good, overall. More than anything, they introduced doubt into Godfrey's numbers and put him on the defensive. This late in a campaign, candidates don't want to be on the defensive.
My questions for the Mayor: during his tenure in office, overall crime dropped most substantially during the first year. What did he do during that year to bring about such a drop in crime? And why then did the crime rate (based on your statistics) remain pretty much the same over the next 6 years? If he is going to take credit for a drop in the crime rate he needs to be able to answer these questions.
I for one do not need any article or any professor telling me whether crime is up or down in Ogden.
I know it is up when police officers knock on my door and tell me to keep my car locked that has to be parked in my driveway and to keep my doors locked.
If I know someone is planning to stop by my house I always watch for them and go out to meet them to walk them in and to walk them out when they leave.
I no longer take my evening stroll around my neighborhood.
I was born in my neighborhood but it is no longer safe. The illegals and drug dealers and the rest of the riff raff have taken over and the police know it.
The Mayor hasn't been to my block to ask for my vote. I wonder why.
Holy cow! There’s something in the paper about Godfrey worshipper Sue Wilkerson and you don’t mention it! To read her letter to the editor, click here.
In it, she makes these points!
After the first five years of Godfrey, real estate was in a state of “decay”. Listings peaked at 845 listings with average days on marked of 6-12 months!
Then, after only one more year of Godfrey, listings had fallen to 403, with average days on market of only 40! Amazing!
But now, after yet another year of Godfrey, listings have risen again, to 676! What happened to cause this horrifying re-lapse? It was the “looming” primary election that done it!
That’s right. Homebuyers, faced with the prospect of Godfrey losing the election, have stopped buying homes! As we all know, that’s the first question most homebuyers ask: "Do this city have a Godfrey?" If the answer is “No”, they hit the road!
So according to Sue, we should never have elections! Only their elimation will save us! (Of course, according to her own math, six out of seven of Godfrey’s years, including the latest year, have been in “decay”.)
Also, Sue tells us a major bank has quit writing commercial loans downtown, waiting to see if Godfrey will win. Put another way, if that certain bank has to pull its face out of the trough that Godfrey has been slopping it in, it doesn’t want to play at all!
Brilliant! Bravo Sue! You once again have made my day! More! More!
I want to compliment Dirk Youngberg and the firefighters for a very fine, informative "meet the candidates' last nite.
The questions were diverse...unlike the Hardman/League of Women Voters snore...and each candidate answered each of the 8 questons.
The women were well-informed and articulate. I felt sorry for Peterson. He was out of his league. He's still a gondolist and very much a Godfreyite in spite of his protestation that he's 'independent'.
He hadn't done his homework and he floundered. "Good ol' boy" heartiness is not gonna cut it on the council.
He said he was 'forced' to move his dealership to Riverdale. He hasn't brot his business back INto Ogden, has he? The boy wonder has been i office for 8 years...and Kent has stayed away.
Johnson and Eccles were supposedly at cottage meetings. Unless they were scared of the questions at the M the C meeting, they could hae invited everyone down to Union Station!
But, it's easier to toss the bull in front of neighborhood friends.
It is to bad there were only about 20 people that took the time to show up at last nights meet and greet.
Victoria Johnson did not deliver the same excellence in this article on crime as the first one she did the other day. The quotes that both Schwebke and Johnson used left one wondering "huh?".
Were they striving for balance? When has that ever been a criteria for the Standard?
VH's quote that the crime 'has been flat' certainly does her no justice. Was that taken out of context? Susie is smarter than that. I didn't think much of any of the quotes used in either article.
Susie's flyer on crime stats is well done, and hard to argue with the figures.
Kevin,
The room was large and filled with lots of chairs...but there were more than 20 people there!
It's too bad that more voters didn't show up. They'd have learned a lot. The clear choice is the women...no doubt.
A neighbor wanted to attend a cottage meeting to meet the women...I called and told him about last nite.... a no show!
Shame on the SE for not covering it and for not writing about it today. Just like the other time the women had such a meeting. Nothing before..nothing afterward. Fair and balanced? You decide.
You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him float.
Ogden has a sickness.
The sickness starts in the Mayor's office but it permeates our entire society in Ogden.
I am sick of the anonymous letters being sent "from your neighbor".
Too many people are trying to use their ugly anonymous letters and veiled threats to try to frighten those of us who do take a public stand. It leaves me with a sick feeling about our society.
What has happened to our traditional American way of taking a stand publicly? Why are so many neighbors afraid to tell me who they are? What has happened to our dignity as a society?
It is also coming across loud and clear to me that certain people want someone else to do the fighting to change our government in Ogden for their benefit but they don't have the guts to take a public stand.
When one of you also gets an unsigned letter "from your neighbor" please quit calling me asking me to do something about it. Join the fight and try doing something about it yourself.
The problem is - changing the Mayor is not going to cure this pervasive sickness in Ogden.
I too have received an anonymous letter from "one who loves you" basically asking me to keep quiet. Since it quoted a church authority, I thought I'd show it to the High Priests group. I did so without taking any political position at all. I just read the letter.
The comment I received from the group was the letter was "cowardly and insulting."
Yes, there is a sickness in Ogden. There is a sense of deceit, of coercion, of secret deals, and of anonymous letters passed in the middle of the night.
My feeling is there is a cure to this sickness. It is in a container marked
VanHooser
Gochnour
Aardema
Wicks.
And speaking of sickness, I received a letter this morning from Sonja Jorgenson outlining the attempt made by the Godfrey administration against her husband's job, because he is supporting VanHooser. Kent Jorgenson has been told by his bosses not to campaign for VanHooser anymore, nor to make any further comments.
Mike Vause at WSU has had his job threatened, and so has his wife, and so have countless others.
People, put a stop to this madness. This evil must end.
Dorothy and David,
Thank you both for being in the fray. I've rec'd many letters from "One who loves me"....some signed by Ed Allen, some not. The MO is similar. Sometimes, I get an anonymous letter in the mailbox....no stamp! How cheap, eh?
I've been battling cowards for 30 years...people like that don't scare me away. I just dig in deeper.
I also have had "church authority" tossed at me.
BTW: The LDS church leaders encourage the members to be actively involved in the community! They encourage it, and never take a stand about any candidate or party. The LEADERS know we're smart enuf to know whom to vote for, and which issues need our attention.
So, it is sad when our "neighbors" try to shut us down...because they are too cowardly to stand for anything. I have invited some of these critics to join me at meetings, etc. "Oh no! I don't want to get involved".
Yeash, right, but they don't want us involved either.
I admire Dorothy! She doesn't back down in the face of funeral plants from Godfrey, threats, letters, and all the false statements made about her.
I don't back down either. Ed Allen has tried to shut me up....give it up Ed. Give it up Godfrey, Give it up Geigers. Ordering Jeske to "tell Sharon Beech to stop saying mean things"....is laughable if it didn't illustrate their dangerous mind set at work
Just laff it off. They only show the world their backsides. When I go to church with this bunch...I just smile and say "hello". Drives 'em nuts.
The obvious person to put a stop to the sickness is Mayor Matthew Godfrey since he not only started it but condones and uses it to his perceived advantage.
Godfrey spread the cancer with his lying; playing favorites; secret deals; collusion to keep information from the Council; and all other things on the illegal side of the Municipal Code and Utah Statutes.
City Hall needs to be fumigated from top to bottom and cleaned out from the Police Chief to the Janitor when Godfrey loses his re-election bid Tuesday.
I urge Kent Jorgenson to see his attorney immediately if he hasn't seen one already.
As a former Councilman his perspective on the City election needs to be heard by Ogden voters and Utah citizens in general.
The newest member of the Utah Grand Jury Panel of Judges is Judge Brent West in Ogden's Second District Court.
Anybody concerned about what is happening to freedom of speech in Ogden's City election would do well to give Judge West a call at the Second District Court and ask that the Panel look into all irregularities.
The number for the District Court Administrator for the Grand Jury Panel in Salt Lake is 801-578-3971.
If I were Mrs. Jorgenson I would certainly try that number on Monday morning as well as Judge West's number which is 395-1079 in Ogden's Second District Court.
david s.-
Please give the number for Judge West to anyone who has had their jobs threatened because of their political beliefs.
This is the only way we will stop this idiocy..
An interesting front page story today by Jeff Demoss in the SE. It discusses why the Petersen company is locating its new metals manufacturing shop in Pocatello, ID instead of the Ogden area. [The story can be found here]. From the story:
Rob Despain, vice president of business development for Petersen, said the company has been unable to find enough skilled workers in the Ogden area to meet rapidly growing demand for its products and services.
Particularly interesting, I think, were these passages:
“We absolutely love Ogden and Farr West, but... we’re just not able to find enough welders and machinists locally to fit what we’re doing,” he said, “so we decided to look 140 miles north.”
Local economic development officials have been trying to drum up more interest among local youth in skilled labor careers, but their efforts have been slow in producing strong results. Ron Kusina, president of the Weber Economic Development Corp., said the Ogden area has “incredible” training resources for such jobs through the Ogden-Weber Applied Technology Col- lege and a new lean manufacturing training center at Business Depot Ogden... "but enrollment needs to be much higher than it has been in recent years,” Kusina said.
He said Wedcorp is starting a marketing campaign to recruit more skilled labor to the Ogden area from out of state with the hope that future expansions by local companies will be able to stay local.
I'm curious why careers as skilled machinists are not drawing young people starting out in the job market.
This was good reporting by the SE, going after the reasons the company decided to locate its new facility out of region, and bringing to public attention the fact that there seems to be a shortage of skilled labor, and young people looking for training as skilled machinists particularly, in the Ogden area. I wish the reporter had dug up something on why that is so --- the lack of interest. Might make a good follow-up piece on the business pages. But the story today was good business reporting. This is one the SE got right, and deserves a nod for. And for putting it on the front page.
I just recieved a postard from the Governor, paid for by the Godfrey camp. It quotes the Governor in his speach from Amer-Sports opening. I will be calling the governors office on Monday and would like the gentle readers to do the same and ask if the governor is really endorsing the Mayor. 1-800-705-2464 or 538-1000
I'm tired of these dirty tricks to look like he has the backing of the Governor just a few days before the election.
Good counsel, Nero.
I hope Kent sees your post and protects himself.
Godgrey is mean and vindictive. If he wins, this whole city will be living in fear of his reprisals.
tk,
The apparent drop in the crime rate between 1999 and 2000 is an artifact of the population data used. Godfrey uses 1990 Census data for 1999, and 2000 Census data for 2000. So all of the population growth that took place during the 1990's is attributed to the final year.
observer1,
Actually I agree with Van Hooser when she says that the crime rate has been essentially flat overall. If you average over the short-term fluctuations and look at the overall trend for the last 8 years (as Godfrey claims to do) you find that the number of crimes reported per year in Ogden has been essentially flat, with a margin of error that's consistent with a slight increase or decrease. To try to estimate the crime rate (per person) you need population estimates, and these introduce a lot of additional uncertainty. It appears to me that the crime rate has gone down at about the same rate as the population has gone up. But the data are also consistent with a flat crime rate.
Looking over the detailed numbers in today's article, I'm guessing that the discrepancies in violent crime statistics are mostly due to inconsistent definitions of robbery and aggravated assault. Ogden may have narrowed the definitions of these crimes starting in 2005, while the BCI continues to use broader definitions. Of course, what's important in determining trends is to use the same definition from year to year. I very much doubt that Ogden has done that.
Today's articles were disappointing because nobody even attempted to explain the odd discrepancies. Instead all we get is this: "At each level, the criteria of how crimes are defined is different, resulting in slightly different numbers." I'm sorry, Ms. Johnson, but the numbers 35 and 121 (to take the most glaring example) are not "slightly" different--they're grossly different. Something is fishy here, and you made no attempt to find out what.
More than a few of the rash of new listings Sue speaks of are properties owned by her associate Provident investors lured here on the vision of a gondola and other nonsense. They quickly tired of our inherent non-sexy appeal and the remodel and upkeep costs from afar. One such property is nearby and was the blight in these blocks. The investor showed some energy at first then disappeared all summer leaving the property overgrown and vacant. It is now listed by Sue. Likely for a healthy boost edging out opportunities for other eager yiung buyers. It is precisely her overheated out of state buyers taking advantage of easliy acquired mortgage money that will now screw millions of legitimate first home buyers out of affordable mortgages for the foreseeable future. They are a self-feeding, self-serving bunch.
Good Reader, You mean being ordered to stop the phone dialer/radio ad in which Godfrey pretends Gov Huntsman endorsed him, the little sneak has the audacity to send a mailer touting the same thing?
Well, Ogden needs the goodwill of the Gov and State resources as we move forward.
Pulling a sneaky trick like this TWICE has not endeared the sneak to the Gov. I heard Roskelly say TWICE that the Gov does not endorse candidates and he never gave his permission to Godfrey to use his voice and remarks over the phone and radio.
You see, a true sociopath, which Godfrey resembles, doesn't get it. These flawed persons always think of themselves in grandiose terms, being above laws and the moral constraints of business and society. He lies with impunity (so far).
It will be a frightening 4 years for our public servants and city employees if this Castro/Chavez wannabe is re-elected.
Tell everyone you know, even those who live out of Ogden, but have friends and family here to vote for the 4 women!
Contacting Judge West, who IS a moral man, is good advice. Nero gave excellent advice to the Jorgensen's.
Everytime I hear someone defend Patterson and Harmer et al, as "nice" men, I shudder. What's nice got to do with it? To paraphrase Tina Turner.
They certainly appear to abet and cheerlead this sneak's agenda. If they were truly moral, they'd have gotten out of Ogden long ago.
Mama used to say, "If you hang around with that......., you'll end up the same way." Dave and John's mama should have told them that too.
If the SE endorses this sneak, then we can assume that the editors didn't have mamas who taught them how to discern sneaks and liars among us, or they just took a bad turn and forgot how to stand up for good.
Thank you, Dan. This can be a confusing topic, and the reporters really didn't delineate the discrepancies.
They might not have understood the subject themselves. But if it's going to be on the front page, then they should have dug and asked questions til they "got it."
It's all such foolishness to correlate crime rate to a mayor, whether it's more or less. There is, and always will be, a significant criminal class. They don't just move around based on local politics. Do you think they read the papers. Do you think a new squad on the street will affect whether one guys beef erupts some evening.
Godfrey has succeeded again in steering the story away from his G.O.D. complex. (Gondola Obsession Disorder) and the attendant P.M.S.(Parklands-Malans Misappropriation Syndrome). He is also suffering from A.D.D. with emphasis F.T.S. (Fear of Transit Solutions)
Anyone who has gotten one of those anonymous letters needs to get it to Representative Neil Hansen. When I talked to him last. He told me that there has been some letters that have been floating around about him and he would like to compare notes. So if any of you, that have any letters please send them to him. I know that he will get to the bottom of all this. He is the person to see that things are made right.
We could email UTA Monday and ask if they are a party to this intimidation? What a scandal for them if Moulton and McKittrick took this on, not to mention the TV stations!
Dan, I was aware of the reason you stated for the drop from 1999 to 2000, but what I haven't heard from Godfrey is why he thinks it dropped so much during that one year (using his #s). And then didn't drop much after that. He wants to talk about what he's done over a 7 year period to bring down the crime rate, when in fact many of the things he claims he's done took place after the drop from '99 to '00.
tk,
Ok, I now see your point. Perhaps you should call the mayor and ask him these questions, then post his response here on Weber County Forum!
Has anyone forwarded the letter from Kent's wife to the media? I would think that this is big news, we've all heard about the intimidation, but this is a confirmed case where someone is willing to stand up and tell their side.
If the Standard does not get this and run with it, we should all cancel subscriptions.
It's time to get out the pitchforks and torches folks.
Being somewhat of a newbie to "O"-Town, I haven't lived through 8 years of Mayor Godfrey, but it's not my first experience with election tactics like this.
I once heard an election judge ask a voter if he was on his way in to, and I qoute "do the right thing!" This happened when I lived in Murray in 2000. So it doesn't surprise me things like this still happen.
What does surprise me is that this is the only place I've heard of these goings-on. I feel left out because I haven't gotten any kind of postcards or anonymous letters. I wonder if it's because I have a 'Smartgrowthogden" lawn sign and they figure I'm a lost cause.
I realize the Trib isn't the paper it used to be, but surely Rod Decker or Chris Vanocur would be interested in this kind of nastiness. Heck, maybe someone should bring all of this to Rocky's attention. He could help take the heat off himself by pointing the camera lenses up north to get to the bottom of all this mess.
Rudi, are you going to post the Jorgenson letter on the web?
All the media have been apprised! Each stationpapaer has a copy of the letter in question.
We'll hope they run with it.
There is a Utah Code Section that covers John Patterson's conduct which is considered a misdemeanor with removal from office and barred from elective office in the future.
We should be so lucky as to get rid of him as well as Godfrey!
I nominate John Patterson and Matthew Godfrey for membership in Utah's Stupidity Club.
They really do think they are above the law.
Godfrey is a sociopath...textbook case. Instead of stalking and killing as a serial murderer, he concentrates on destroying anyone who dares to stand up to him. Theats, reprisals, humiliation....that's his pattern. He wants to be a big fish in a small pond...but he'll soon find himself caught with a hook in his lying mouth. It's too bad he'll take down the guppies who swim with him.
Reminder: if you are reading this on Sunday morning past 2:00 A.M. and you didn't set your clock back an hour last night [end of daylight savings time], then it's probably an hour earlier now than you think it is.
We will never change Utah politics until people are ready to come forth publicly and go on the record for themselves.
They have to fight their own battles. We will help but they have to acknowledge whatever happened did happen to them personally.
sweet dreams,
Which Utah Code section are you referring to?
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