For a little topical change of pace this morning, we'd like to highlight the most recent and fantastic Dan's Diary blog article, which spins off Sunday's Standard-Examiner story, (bearing the the headline, "Killings down in Ogden"). Within this new below-linked DD blog article, frequent WCF contributor Dan S. examines the full range of "possible" and "law enforcement-claimed" causes of the SE's reported "unprecedented drop in Ogden killings" under the microscope of "Poisson statistics". All-in-all, it's a pretty enlightening read. We'll start off by incorporating Dan's tantalizing lead paragraphs:
Good news: Ogden has had zero homicides so far in 2011 (probably).You can read the rest of Dr. Schroeder's highly-instructive Dan's Diary article here:
Bad news: Journalists don’t understand statistics (still).
“Killings down in Ogden,” proclaimed the headline across the top of Sunday’s front page, with a great big zero on one side. Pending a final ruling on whether a fatal July shooting was accidental, Ogden has probably gone for nine months without a murder or automobile homicide. This isn’t just great news; it’s historic.
The article falls short, though, in discussing the possible causes of this unprecedented drop in killings.
Count your blessings, gentle readers. It ain't every day you get a short collegiate-level lecture on applied probability theory and statistics from one of the Top Dogs in the mighty WSU Physics Department, delivered entirely tuition-free.
