Monday, November 03, 2008

The Weber County Forum 2008 Election Predictions Contest

A chance for our gentle readers to demonstrate their ability to pick "winners"

At the suggestion of one of our gentle readers, we invite you to enter a little contest here to see who can best predict the outcome of the November 4 election.

To enter, you must successfully select the names of your predicted winners from our 2008 Weber County Ballot Roster, and the percentage of the popular vote they receive. For example, you might say: “Barack Obama, 51%; Brent Wallis, 75%,” etc.

The person who 1) selects the greatest number of prevailing candidates and 2) comes closest to the winning percentages in all races will be pronounced the Grand Prize Winner after the final official election tally comes in. In the event of a tie, the person who posts earlier will be the winner.

As an added bonus, we'll also pronounce winners in subcategories, i.e., individual races, such as the District 9 House of Representatives race, for instance, for those readers who don't wish to deal with the entire candidate list.

The deadline for contest entries: 8:00 tomorrow night.

And the prizes? Bragging rights.

18 comments:

Curmudgeon said...

Well, let's see....

President: McCain/Bush will win the electoral vote, lose the popular vote. [Pop vote: 48%] Reason: I don't think enough white voters in key states like Pa and Ohio will, when the curtain is drawn and nobody but god is watching, vote for a black man as president. I would like to think I'm wrong about that, but I don't think I am. Obama pop vote: 49%.

Congressman: Bishop, 60% Bowen 37%. Cong. Bishop [a wholly-owned subsidiary of Energy Solutions, Inc.] will coast to another victory, carried there by voters who, for some incomprehensible reason, think he's a fiscal conservative.

Governor: Huntsman, 55%. Springmeyer. 40%. Huntsman is a nice man, with a photogenic family. He is the anodyne candidate. He calms everyone and scares no one. Unfortunately, he has no cojones, politically speaking, and will sign damn near anything that vomits forth from the Wingnut Troika [Curtis, Bramble, Buttars] in the legislature... omnibus school bills, vouchers, developers dream bill-- "Signin' John" Huntsman will ink them all.

Tenth Rep. Dist: Wallis, 51%, Allen 46%. The Rs this time avoided putting up an Eagle Forum Propeller Beanie Hat candidate, and chose instead one that is entirely "clubable," as they used to say. Smart move. I've seen no polling, but the sane Republicans in my neighborhood... [yes, there are sane Republicans in Utah. Honest. Swear to god, there are!]... who used to have signs out for Luwanna have signs out this year for Wallis. This is a swing district, but with an edge in registrations for the Rs I think. If Allen has lost the sane Republicans, he's lost an important bloc for a D in this district. And he's lost too some --- I suspect a fair number --- of traditional D and I voters over the gondola matter. He'd have been better off to tackle that issue head on instead of ignoring it. Too late now. And his campaign has some glitches. [Emails to his campaign website, which he invites, are not always answered, e.g.] And he's running the same kind of mushy middle campaign that Wallis is. [If you took the policy statements on their fliers, and put the other candidate's name at the head of them, nobody would notice.] Both are solidly in favor of truth, virtue motherhood, apple pie and the flag. In this district, Allen --- any Democrat --- needs to clearly differentiate himself from the R running on issues that matter to swing voters. Allen, so far as I can see, didn't. When both candidates run mushy middle campaigns, generally the one favored by the party with the most registered voters wins.

AG: Shurtliff, 52%, Hill 43%. This one hurts. Hill is by far the better candidate. Shurtliff is another incumbent short of cojones. Running empty swing adds to suggest if the other side wins, your kids won't be safe any more. He ducks controversy, which is understandable, but that does not constitute leadership or what is needed in an AG.

County Commissioner: Dearden 54%, Johnson 41%. If I had to pick one R commissioner to drop, it would not be Dearden, who is a generally reasonable Commissioner, who actually listens to constituents seriously. Sometimes. It would be Bishoff [who reportedly does actually have a pulse, though the reports are unconfirmed]. Dearden, however, as do his two R colleagues on the commission, tends to waffle when the chips are down, and cave to developers. When the Powder Mt. Town matter came before the commission, they all caved. Only when the ensuing uproar convinced Dearden he might actually lose votes over this did he, belatedly, grow at least a vestigal backbone. Whether it will long survive his re-election is an open question.

[I don't know enough about the other races for the state Senate or state offices to even hazard a guess.]

Monotreme said...

Obama 51% (367 EV), McCain 45% (171 EV). I believe in the polls, and I think the Bradley Effect is an urban legend.

Bishop 67%, Bowen 30%. Another sacrificial D in a red district.

Huntsman 60%, Springmeyer 28%, Schanze 10% (heh). Protest votes go to Schanze.

Attorney General: Shurtliff 51%, Hill 48%. Close, but no cigar.

Every Leg District except 10: 60% Republican, 40% Democrat.

10th Leg District: Wallis 53%, Allen 46%

Senate 19: Christensen 60%, Hansen 40%

Senate 20: Jenkins 60%, Olsen 40%.

Weber Co Commissioner: Johnson 51%, Dearden 48%.

I think the natural tendency of Weber County is to vote 60/40 Republican, so that's why I keep guessing that on some of the lower-profile races.

ozboy said...

Shit-O-Dear man, I don't have a clue, but I think I want some of what Mr. Curmudgeon is drinkin.

But Mr. "C", please know that even if we tip a few on this subject, I still hope that prick Allen gets it shoved up his Godfreyite ass!

I also hope that Mr. Monotreme is wrong about Hansen. Hansen may be a dolt, but he's our dolt! Besides, he's a damn fine man of the people and truly represents inner city Ogden one hell of alot better than some "G" train dick would.

I also tend to disagree with Mr. "M" about the urban legend nature of the "Bradley" effect. I think it is very real. I've been around these great old United States for a long time and I know damn well that there is a huge reservoir of racial elitism residing in the bosom of America. There's a lot of white folks real nervous about this crazy idea but don't want to show it for fear people will think they're not hip. When the curtain closes that fear will be on the votin side of that line.

As a long time PaleoConservative Republican I hope this half white skinny kid from Chi Town kicks butt tomorrow. More than that I hope the Secret Service can keep him alive long enough to show us his true colors. It is about time that the good ole USofA had someone with some brains and balls running things.

PS - If my man "O" wins tomorrow will they change the name to the "Half White House"? Will they paint it grey? Will the world as we know it end? Will the Star Strangled Banana be changed to the "Best of Kenya jungle chants"? Will America go on a massive diet so's we can all be skinny and hip? Will artificial tan goop be the biggest seller on the market?
Could be for some interesting times for sure. Hell, I'm ready and slatherin on the "tan by ten" stuff as I type!

Chicken Little or is that Little Chicken said...

WHY DID THE CHICKEN CROSS THE ROAD??

SARAH PALIN: Before it got to the other side, I shot the chicken,
cleaned and dressed it, and had chicken burgers for lunch.

BARACK OBAMA: The chicken crossed the road because it was time for
a change! The chicken wanted change!

JOHN MC CAIN: My friends, that chicken crossed the road because he
recognized the need to engage in cooperation and dialogue with all
the chickens on the other side of the road.

HILLARY CLINTON: When I was First Lady, I personally helped that
little chicken to cross the road. This experience makes me uniquely
qualified to ensure right from Day One! that every chicken in this
country gets the chance it deserves to cross the road. But then, this
really isn't about me.

GEORGE W. BUSH: We don't really care why the chicken crossed the
road We just want to know if the chicken is on our side of the road,
or not. The chicken is either against us, or for us. There is no
middle ground here.

DICK CHENEY: Where's my gun?

COLIN POWELL: Now to the left of the screen, you can clearly see
the satellite image of the chicken crossing the road.

BILL CLINTON: I did not cross the road with that chicken. What is
your definition of chicken?

AL GORE: I invented the chicken.

JOHN KERRY: Although I voted to let the chicken cross the road, I
am now against it! It was the wrong road to cross, and I was misled
about the chicken's intentions. I am not for it now, and will remain
against it.

AL SHARPTON: Why are all the chickens white? We need some black
chickens.

DR. PHIL: The problem we have here is that this chicken won't
realize that he must first deal with the problem on this side of the
road before it goes after the problem on the other side of the road.
What we need to do is help him realize how stupid he's acting by not
taking on his current problems before adding new problems.

OPRAH: Well, I understand that the chicken is having problems,
which is why he wants to cross this road so bad. So instead of having
the chicken learn from his mistakes and take falls, which is a part
of life, I'm going to give this chicken a car so that he can just
drive across the road and not live his life like the rest of the
chickens.

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN: We have reason to believe there is a chicken,
but we have not yet been allowed to have access to the other side of
the road.

NANCY GRACE: That chicken crossed the road because he's guilty! You
can see it in his eyes and the way he walks.

PAT BUCHANAN: To steal the job of a decent, hardworking American.

MARTHA STEWART: No one called me to warn me which way that chicken
was going. I had a standing order at the Farmer's Market to sell my
eggs when the price dropped to a certain level. No little bird gave
me any insider information

DR SEUSS: Did the chicken cross the road? Did he cross it with a
toad? Yes, the chicken crossed the road, but why it crossed I've not
been told.

ERNEST HEMINGWAY: To die in the rain, alone.

GRANDPA: In my day we didn't ask why the chicken crossed the road.
Somebody told us the chicken crossed the road, and that was good
enough.

BARBARA WALTERS: Isn't that interesting? In a few moments, we will
be listening to the chicken tell, for the first time, the heart
warming story of how it experienced a serious case of molting, and
went on to accomplish its lifelong dream of crossing the road.

ARISTOTLE: It is the nature of chickens to cross the road.

JOHN LENNON: Imagine all the chickens in the world crossing roads
together, in peace.

BILL GATES: I have just released eChicken 2008, which will not only
cross roads, but will lay eggs, file your important documents, and
balance your checkbook. Internet Explorer is an integral part of
eChicken 2008. This new platform is much more stable and will never
crash or need to be rebooted.

ALBERT EINSTEIN: Did the chicken really cross the road, or did the
road move beneath the chicken?

COLONEL SANDERS: Did I miss one?

RudiZink said...

Anonymous comment deleted, per the terms of service of this blog.

Sorry...

dan s. said...

Curm:

Glad to see that you're back to your usual insightful self. I couldn't agree more about the interchangeability of the candidates' fliers in the Allen-Wallis race.

Machster said...

McCain/Palin 51% to Obama/Biden 49% when the popular vote is tallied. Electorial, what matters most, McCain 281 to Obama (the rest).

US House Bishop 65% Ugh! Bowen UGh! just as bad 40% of Utah voters. Anyone tired of "I was an Eagle Scout" yet?

Governor/Lt Gov. Huntsman 63% Springmeyer 35% Dell nut job 2%

Attorney General Shurtliff "I created the Amber Alert System while Al Gore was creating the internet..." Unfortunately 55% to Hill's 45% I agree with Curm.

State Treasurer Ellis 60% to Collard's 35%

State Auditor ???who knows or cares much.

Senator Dist 18 Bill Hansen 55% to Christensen's 45% incumbent backlash and go along to get along catches up to GOP.

Senator Dist 20 Jenkins 65% to "Bishop" Steve Olsen's 35% incumbency trumps LDS bragging rights.

State Rep. District 6 Painter 55% Gibson 45% Any one is better suited than the incumbent choice again.

State House Rep District7 Reynolds 55% to Wilcox's 45% again incumbency in most cases is a negative this year.

State House Rep District 8 Alvord 53% Froerer 47% Froerer poorly represented constituency in every way, grand standing late in his second session last year, plus lack of effectiveness on property taxation, never has passed any legislation benefiting constituents, should kill any votes for him, except from his own family and the GOP straight line voting Utards.

State Rep Dist 9 Hansen 65% to youthful challenger without a clue nor qualification...Jeremy Peterson 31% (his age) at best. Neil has done a very good job considering being surrounded by RINOS and bought out low life's in the legislature.

State Rep. Dist 11 Dee 55% Openshow 40% nice try but Dee will win.

State House Rep 12 Greenwood 55% over Sage 35% Newcomer without publicity and Dee has not made any big mistakes. Or Sage has not the "equipment" to research and publicise them if he has.

Weber County Commission Johnson 52% Dearden 48% Weber County has about 6000 votes up in Ogden Valley and we are still hot under the collar about Property Taxes and Powderville and some even over gross budgetary decisions. Everyone in Ogden Valley will vote against all of the County Commissioners who spent a grand total of $85,000 on two thirds of the land mass of Weber County, out of a budget of $126,000,000. Everyone should remember that and hold them accountable at the polls whether you live in the Ogden Valley, own property there or just vacation or visit friends/relatives there.

All five Constitutional amendments will pass easily since no one takes the time to analyze them. Amendment B and E should go down in flames but will pass handily due to voter apathy, most likely.

All the judges will remain seated since no one cares. Apathy again. Even tho Parley Baldwin should go at a minimum, and turnover is a good thing. And all the unopposed School District Board candidates will also be "elected" since none but district 4 has two candidates. Dave Thomas will likely succeed only because his name comes first on the ballot. No one cares that he is a political animal and shameless self promoter. Sorry, Chris Dallin, you likely should have won if you don't pull off a miracle. I am rooting for you.

All this is just a wild ass guess of course. But it will be a little fun to play along and see how far off we were when its all over but the shout'in...

Curm will never agree (with very much) but I think he should be a write in candidate for whatever School District he lives in. That or as a Weber County Commissioner if not Representative.

Monotreme said...

Oh, that's right, I made a mistake on the Hansen/Peterson race.

So, revise Leg Dist 9: Hansen 55%, Peterson 45%

Sorry, and thanks for the heads-up, Jason.

You guys need to stop watching Faux News. Try

www.electoral-vote.com
www.fivethirtyeight.com

or even the Republican-leaning

www.realclearpolitics.com

You can argue for the loss of a state or two (as Curm has), but I refuse to believe that the polls over the last month are all consistently wrong. The highly-touted Gallup tracker that showed McCain up by 1% was repudiated by Zogby. Deukmajian's pollster has blamed the so-called "Bradley Effect" on a bad Field poll. Even if Obama slips 5% in each and every state, he still has something like 311.

If McCain wins, it'll be because of widespread fraud and vote manipulation, or some other source of bad data. After all, about 1/3 of the vote is locked up already in early voting. A 75-80% turnout (what it's looking like) will favor the Demos.

Have faith, guys.

Jason W. said...

Obama/Biden: 337; Mouth-breathing moron from Alaska/Old white creep: 163.

Tomorrow's chant for America (but in a good way):

"Take the next step! Take the next step! Take the next step! Take the next step!"

THE SKI IS BEAUTIFUL BLUE

disgusted said...

curm
agree with your ag race comments

surprised and wo be unto you..... said...

You Heard it here first.

Demos in weber county sweep the election and Hansen of Leg. 9 is the new speaker of the house.

There are 30,000 new voters in weber county and Obama's group registered them. This state is turning blue and surprised all the pollsters because no one called all the new voters.
Remember you heard it here first.

bluew mew said...

Hunstsman 55 Springmeyer 44 gov
Shirtwiff 48 Hill 52 ag
Jenkins 46 olsen 54 Sen
Christensen 59 Hansen 41 Sen
Hansen 55 peterson 44 leg
greenwood 35 sage 65 leg
wilcox 35 reynolds 64 leg
dee 4 openshaw 96 leg
alvord 55 froer 45 leg

god bless america and hot chicks too said...

Were all a bunch of politically junkies.. Don't ya know it. I do and I love it.

So God bless the rich. Now ya think I'm a republican, don't ya?

Lol......

Curmudgeon said...

Surprised:

From your keyboard to Ra's ear!

Curmudgeon said...

Comment moved to upper comments section

Carl said...

Rove predicts Obama landslide

Curmudgeon said...

carl:

Damn! Rove cannot speak without lying. Now I really am worried....

monotreme said...

Where do I go to collect my Bragging Rights Certificate?

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